Nagelsmann answered with a triple substitution at 60 — Nadiem Amiri, Jamie Leweling, and Deniz Undav — and the game changed immediately. Undav settled it at 68 by volleying in Amiri's curled delivery, then won it outright at 90+4 by burying Felix Nmecha's pass. Germany clinches their knockout spot with a game to spare, and Undav's 2-goal impact off the bench will make the starting lineup conversation for the next match very interesting.
Without Elye Wahi — denied entry into Canada — Côte d'Ivoire asked Ange-Yoan Bonny to lead the line and still managed to take the lead against one of the tournament's strongest squads. Kessié's 30th-minute finish, set up by Yan Diomandé's delivery into the box, was fully deserved given how little Germany had threatened cleanly. Amad Diallo started on the right, and the compact 4-1-4-1 structure that had shut out Ecuador held firm through the first hour.
The problem was Germany's bench turned out to be better than Ivory Coast's starting XI. Once Undav equalized at 68, the Ivorian defensive structure was broken and they couldn't muster a response — without Wahi there was no counter threat to keep Germany's defense honest. Wilfried Singo limped off with a muscle injury at 80, adding a personnel problem to an already difficult night. Ivory Coast still has a path to the knockouts, but they'll need a result in their final group match to secure it.
We went 3-for-3 on this one. The moneyline on Germany cashed — Wahi's absence stripped Ivory Coast of their starting striker exactly as we called, and despite a quieter showing from Wirtz and Musiala than expected, Germany's overall depth was decisive. The spread call backing Ivory Coast to cover also landed: Germany won by exactly 1, the tightest margin possible, which is precisely the scenario the bull case pointed to with Fae's side making 'every German advance difficult.' The total over 2.5 hit at 3 goals — Kessié scored before halftime and Undav's brace pushed the total over.
Germany sits at 100% to advance from the group, with the market pricing them at 81.5% to reach the Round of 16. What we didn't fully account for was how long Germany's starters would take to break through this block — Wirtz and Musiala were largely neutralized until Nagelsmann overhauled the attack at 60, and it was bench depth rather than the starting combination that actually delivered. Ivory Coast validated every bear case we wrote, but Germany's squad was simply too deep for it to matter when it counted.
Paraguay1-1
Ecuador1-2
Ivory Coast2-1
Curaçao7-1
Norway1-2Curaçao2-0Germany1-2Ecuador1-0- DoubtfulWilfried Singo — Suffered muscle injury coming off at the 80th minute against Germany