Germany vs Paraguay

Mon Jun 29 · 3:30 PM CT

By Pablo SanchezUpdated 8d ago·3 min read

1—1

	1H	2H	FT
GER	0	0	1
PAR	0	0	1

Germany went in as the heavy favorite and leave in the Round of 32. Paraguay drew 1-1 in 120 minutes at Foxborough, then knocked out the Germans 4-3 on penalties to advance to the Round of 16.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJun 29, 7:00 PM CT

-277GER

PAR+1076

+111GER -1.5

✓

PAR +1.5-111

-135Over 2.5✗Under 2.5+135

Best Bet

Germany to win=

Postgame

Our Germany moneyline missed — the bear case about Paraguay's low block dragging the match to extra time played out exactly as feared, and the pre-match favorite never found the decisive second goal.

Germany

Wirtz, Musiala, Havertz — best attacking unit in this bracket
Paraguay was exposed badly in a 4-0 loss to USA
Schlotterbeck out; defensive depth is thinner than it looks
Lost to Ecuador when focus dipped — knockout stakes don't guarantee reset

Paraguay

Almiron back; counter-attack threat on the break is genuine
Clean sheet vs Australia shows the defensive structure holds under pressure
Lost 4-0 to USA; badly exposed against top-quality opposition
Gomez suspended — set-piece creativity stripped going into their biggest game

Germany entered this Round of 32 tie at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough as massive favorites but exit as one of the biggest upsets of the tournament. Julio Enciso put Paraguay ahead with a 42nd-minute header, Kai Havertz equalized 12 minutes into the second half, Jonathan Tah had a goal ruled out by VAR at the 105th minute for a blocking foul on goalkeeper Orlando Gill, and neither side found a winner in extra time. When the penalties arrived, Gill saved Nick Woltemade's kick, Tah ballooned his attempt over the bar, and Jose Canale slotted home the sudden-death winner — Paraguay through 4-3, Germany out.

Germany did everything right for 120 minutes except score a second goal. They dominated possession, forced Gill into a crucial stop against Havertz in the 78th minute, and had a Tah header from a corner wiped out by VAR at 105 minutes — ruled out for Waldemar Anton impeding Gill's movement. Florian Wirtz's delivery for Havertz's 54th-minute equalizer was exactly the kind of combination this squad was built around, but 1 goal across 120 minutes was not enough to see off a side set up specifically to not lose.

Polymarket — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Kalshi — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

The penalty shootout compounded the misery. Kimmich, Musiala, and Amiri all converted, but Woltemade's kick was saved and Tah ballooned his over the bar. Germany finish the 2026 World Cup at 2-1-1 and are eliminated in the first knockout round — a result that will sting given how thoroughly they controlled this match without ever truly being able to kill it off.

Paraguay executed their blueprint without flinching. They sat deep, absorbed German pressure for 40 minutes, and then struck: Matias Galarza's cross from the left found Julio Enciso arriving late at the back post, and his header beat Neuer cleanly. Paraguay did not panic after Havertz leveled on 54 minutes — they kept their shape, limited Germany to speculative efforts and set pieces, and ground out 120 minutes without conceding a second goal.

Orlando Gill was the difference-maker. His save on Havertz in the 78th minute preserved the draw in regulation, and in the shootout he stopped Woltemade while Neuer saved Balbuena at the other end — both sides trading misses until Canale stepped up in sudden death and converted the winner. Miguel Almiron's presence up top gave their defensive block a genuine counter outlet all night. Paraguay finish 1-2-1 overall and advance to the Round of 16 to face the winner of France vs Sweden.

Our moneyline on Germany missed. The market priced Germany at 73.5% to win and we backed the favorite, but our own bear case — Paraguay's low block compacting and dragging this to extra time — is exactly what played out. The spread call saved the ticket: we took Paraguay +1.5, Germany never scored more than 1 goal across 120 minutes, and that cashed clean. The over 2.5 missed — only 2 goals in 120 minutes of football, and Paraguay's defensive structure made our under bear case look prescient even as Germany generated the better chances throughout. Final scorecard: 1 right, 2 wrong.

The market made Germany the overwhelming favorite and they went out in a shootout to a team built around not losing. Paraguay are now a 99.95% certainty to reach the Round of 16 per current markets — because they already are there. Julian Nagelsmann's side had the possession, had the attacking talent, and had a winner taken back by VAR. That is how knockout football goes when you do not finish. Paraguay move on. Germany book their flights home.

Germany

(2-1-1)

Jun 29Dvs

Paraguay1-1

Jun 25Lvs