Goalkeeper Zion Suzuki was Japan's standout in the final half-hour. He denied Alexander Isak in stoppage time, and Isak's header off the crossbar in the 90+3rd minute was Sweden's best look. Japan close Group F as runners-up with 5 points — 1 win, 2 draws — having played all 3 matches without Endo, Mitoma, or Kubo. They face Brazil in the Round of 32.
Sweden lost a center-back before halftime in all but name. Isak Hien picked up a yellow card on 32 minutes and Graham Potter pulled him at 37 before the situation got worse. It forced an early reorganization and disrupted Sweden's shape going forward. The comeback was real, though — Elanga's 62nd-minute equalizer was a quality finish, curling into the far corner from the right side of the box.
Viktor Gyökeres notched the assist on the equalizer and was Sweden's sharpest attacker all night — before picking up a yellow card of his own on 85 minutes. Sweden pushed hard for a winner and got close: Isak had the crossbar moment in stoppage time before Suzuki shut the door. Sweden end Group F third with 4 points and advance as one of the best third-place teams. Their Round of 32 opponent is France.
We went Japan moneyline and over 2.5 goals. Both missed. On the moneyline, Maeda scored and the attacking depth held up enough to get a goal — the bull case had real legs — but Japan had zero reason to chase a win once Sweden leveled, and they didn't try. Markets had Japan at roughly 41% to win outright with the draw sitting at a live 28%, and that draw number was a better read of the situation than we gave it credit for. On the total, 2 goals isn't over 2.5. Sweden pushed forward as the bear predicted Japan would exploit, but once Elanga equalized and Japan went conservative, the under was inevitable. Both teams advance, Netherlands lock up the group, and the Round of 32 waits for all of them.
Brazil1-2
Sweden1-1
Tunisia4-0
Netherlands2-2
France0-3Japan1-1Netherlands1-5Tunisia5-1