England won 3-2 at the Azteca on Sunday, riding an early Jude Bellingham double through a red card and a furious Mexico comeback bid to reach the quarterfinals.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 5, 10:24 PM CT
+106MEX✓ENG-106
-178MEX +0.5✗ENG -0.5+167
+160Over 2.5✗Under 2.5-160
Best BetEngland to win✓
Postgame
The miss here was the shape of the game, not the winner. We pictured a cagey, low-event night at altitude and instead got a track meet with 5 goals inside 90 minutes, which buried both the Mexico spread and the under before the hour mark. The one thing we got right was the header pick itself, England advancing behind Kane's continued scoring and a deep squad that, this time, didn't even need the extra gear we bet on.
Pregame
England is the side more likely to walk out of Mexico City and into the quarterfinals, and Kane's habit of deciding games late gives them a route through even a rough 90 minutes. The value here is England's squad depth for extra time and penalties, not necessarily a clean win in regulation. It falls apart if the thin air and a patched-together right-back spot catch up with them before the tie is decided.
Mexico
+Unbeaten all tournament, rolling into the knockouts
+Mora, Jimenez and Alvarado give the attack teeth
−Untested against a squad with England's talent
−Quinones, Alvarado and Mora all needed treatment last time
England
+Kane has scored in every round so far
+Bellingham gives them control in the final third
−Right-back crisis leaves Quansah and James thin
−Azteca altitude has punished visitors all tournament
Bellingham did the damage before Mexico could settle, heading in twice inside a chaotic first half. Julian Quinones pulled one back right before the break to keep the home crowd in it, and then things got messier. Jarell Quansah picked up a straight red just past the hour for a studs-up challenge on Jesus Gallardo, confirmed on VAR review, and England had to see out more than half an hour a man short. Harry Kane made the extra cushion count from the penalty spot after Anthony Gordon was hauled down, and Raul Jimenez answered right back with a penalty of his own, but Mexico never found the equalizer they needed.
England4-2-3-1
Mexico4-3-3
Starting 11s.
Thomas Tuchel's call to start Quansah over Reece James at right-back looked shaky the second the red card went up, but by then Bellingham had already put the game out of easy reach. Mexico's front line kept pressing with the extra man, and for a stretch late on it looked like Quinones and Jimenez might drag this one to the wire. England's bench and squad depth held instead.
Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Mexico(4-0-1)
2
+0.5
-178
+106
o2.5
+163
England(4-1-0)
3
-0.5
+167
-104
u2.5
-160
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
Bush's card split down the middle. The England moneyline cashed clean, Kane kept his run of goal involvement going and this England group never needed the extra-time cushion we flagged, closing it out in regulation despite playing 36 minutes with 10 men. The other two picks did not survive contact. Pinnacle had Mexico around a 64 percent shot to at least draw the 90 minutes, and that number was dead within the first half hour, England's 3-2 in regulation buries the Mexico spread pick outright. The under 2.5 leaned on two stingy defenses staying stingy, and instead the sides combined for 5 goals inside 90 minutes, torching that number well before Jimenez's penalty even mattered.
Mexico's case leaned on staying unbeaten and turning the altitude into a weapon, and neither held up once Bellingham got going. The bear case on that side, an untested squad running into England's individual class, is exactly what showed up. England's case landed almost point for point, Kane scored again and Bellingham took over the final third, but the warning about a thin right-back cupboard turned literal. Quansah's red card means a straight suspension, and with James still an unresolved fitness question, Tuchel is now picking a right-back for the quarterfinal with one fewer option than he had walking into the Azteca.
Mexico
(4-0-1)
Jul 5LvsEngland2-3
Jun 30WvsEcuador2-0
Jun 24WvsCzechia3-0
Jun 18WvsSouth Korea1-0
Jun 11WvsSouth Africa2-0
England
(4-1-0)
Jul 5WvsMexico3-2
Jul 1WvsDR Congo2-1
Jun 27WvsPanama2-0
Jun 23DvsGhana0-0
Jun 17WvsCroatia4-2
Recent form.
England's price to win the whole thing jumped to just under 14 percent the moment the final whistle blew, third best on the board behind whoever's left at the top. Next up is a quarterfinal against Norway in Miami, a matchup that will hinge on whether Tuchel can patch the back line before kickoff.
Mexico
(0)
Fully healthy
England
(1)
SuspendedJarell Quansah — straight red card for challenge on Gallardo
England2-3
Ecuador2-0
Czechia3-0
South Korea1-0
South Africa2-0
DR Congo2-1
Panama2-0
Ghana0-0
Croatia4-2