Mexico vs South Africa

Thu Jun 11 · 2:00 PM CT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 26d ago·2 min read
Mexico
South Africa
20
FT
1H2HFT
MEX
002
RSA
000

Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez goals carried Mexico to a 2-0 win over South Africa at the Azteca, in an opener that produced 3 red cards.

Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 to open the 2026 World Cup, and the scoreline does not capture how strange this match got. Quiñones pounced on a Sphephelo Sithole giveaway in the 9th minute and rifled past Ronwen Williams. Jiménez, 35 and playing on home soil after the head injury that nearly ended him in 2020, headed in a Roberto Alvarado cross in the 67th. In between, the cards came out and never really stopped.

WilliamsModibaOkonSibisiMbokaziMudauMokoenaSitholeAdamsFosterRaynersRangelGallardoVásquezMontesReyesLiraFidalgoGutiérrezQuiñonesJiménezAlvarado
South Africa5-3-2
Mexico4-3-3
Starting 11s.

Sithole went off in the 49th, sent for a last-man foul on Brian Gutiérrez that effectively ended the contest. Substitute Themba Zwane followed in the 82nd after a VAR review of a tangle with Alvarado, leaving South Africa with 9. Then in second-half stoppage time, César Montes got himself dismissed for a late challenge on Khuliso Mudau, a tackle Roy Keane called pure laziness on the broadcast.

Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Mexico(1-0-0)
2
-
-
Polymarket
-217
-
-
South Africa(0-0-1)
0
-
-
Polymarket
+852
-
-
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

The market read this one correctly long before kickoff. Mexico at the Azteca against a South Africa side ranked among the weakest in the field was never a coin flip, and traders priced it like a tap-in. The only mild surprise is that the goals were not louder, not that they came.

Group A is now Mexico's to lose. The post-match board has the co-hosts around 62% to win the group, with South Korea the only live threat after their own match. South Africa, already a 1-in-100 long shot to top the group before kickoff, are barely moving the needle now, and their path to the knockouts is down to roughly 7%. Win one of the next two and they are still alive. Lose to Czechia in Atlanta and it is essentially done.

Mexico get South Korea next, June 18 in Zapopan, but without Montes at the back. Javier Aguirre will have to rebuild the central pairing for a real test. South Africa face Czechia at noon ET in Atlanta on the same day, and they will be missing both Sithole and Zwane through suspension. Hugo Broos picked up 3 points worth of homework in a match he lost 2-0.

Mexico
(4-0-1)
Jul 5LvsEngland2-3
Jun 30WvsEcuador2-0
Jun 24WvsCzechia3-0
Jun 18WvsSouth Korea1-0
Jun 11WvsSouth Africa2-0
South Africa
(1-1-2)
Jun 28LvsCanada0-1
Jun 24WvsSouth Korea1-0
Jun 18DvsCzechia1-1
Jun 11LvsMexico0-2
Recent form.
Mexico
(1)
  • SuspendedCésar MontesRed card in stoppage time vs South Africa
South Africa
(2)
  • SuspendedSphephelo SitholeStraight red, last-man foul in 49th minute
  • SuspendedThemba ZwaneSecond-half red after VAR review
Injury report.
World CupGroup AMexicoSouth AfricaPolymarketKalshiDraftKings