Netherlands twice led, twice got pulled back, and walked off Dallas Stadium with a 2-2 draw after Daichi Kamada headed home in the 88th minute.
This was not the opener Ronald Koeman wanted. The Dutch were the better side for long stretches, took the lead through Virgil van Dijk in the 51st minute off a Ryan Gravenberch cross, and then re-took it in the 64th when Crysencio Summerville curled in a beauty from another Gravenberch assist. Japan never folded. Keito Nakamura had already equalized in the 57th with a deflected strike from the edge of the box, and Kamada nodded in a Junya Ito corner with 2 minutes left in regulation to split the points.
Japan3-4-3
Netherlands4-3-3
Starting 11s.
Gravenberch was the engine on both Dutch goals. Donyell Malen forced an early world-class save out of Zion Suzuki, and the Netherlands controlled possession throughout. But the back line lost Kamada on the corner that mattered, and a game Koeman's side looked to be closing out turned into the only result Japan could realistically have hoped for going in.
Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Netherlands(0-1-0)
2
-0.5
+106
+106
o2.5
+113
Japan(0-1-0)
2
+0.5
-108
+308
u2.5
-111
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
The market had this one priced as a clear Netherlands lean — somewhere around a coin flip on the moneyline with the draw a distant second and Japan the live dog. The draw landed, which is the outcome books and prediction markets liked least of the three. Polymarket's draw price closed at 27.5%, and it cashed.
Group F now belongs to the Oranje on paper but not in points. Sweden and Tunisia are still to come for both sides, and the live group-winner board still has Netherlands as the heavy favorite to finish first.
What this really did was tighten the round-of-16 math. Netherlands sit around 57% to advance and Japan around 40% — meaning the Samurai Blue handed themselves a real path with one swing of Kamada's head. Koeman's group needs a result against Sweden to stop the gap from closing further. Japan, with a point already banked against the group's best side, suddenly looks like the team that controls its own fate.
Morocco1-1
Tunisia3-1
Sweden5-1
Japan2-2
Brazil1-2