This moved Netherlands to 4 points and into command of Group F after dropping 2 against Japan in the opener. The backline — still without Timber and de Ligt — did show some exposure when Elanga countered at 59, but it was a footnote. The attack that looked shaky in the opener found a completely different gear here, and 5 goals answers any lingering questions about what this squad can produce when the stakes require it.
Graham Potter's plan was to sit on 3 points, defend deep, and stay compact. It lasted about 4 minutes. Once Brobbey opened the scoring, Sweden had to open up, and the 3-5-2 that worked against Tunisia was ripped apart every time Dumfries got wide. Isak and Gyokeres were starved of service all night; Elanga's 59th-minute strike off an Isak through ball was Sweden's only real moment in a match they never had an answer for.
Sweden still hold 3 points and remain in the mix, but Potter didn't try to spin this: 'We can't concede that many and hope to win...They hurt us in the wide areas.' The carrying quality that Kulusevski provides in transition was clearly absent, and the Isak-Gyokeres pairing — so dangerous on paper — barely touched the ball in threatening areas. Their final group match will need to be something fundamentally different.
We went Netherlands on the moneyline, Netherlands -0.5 on the spread, and over 2.5 goals — all 3 hit. The bull case on the moneyline was that desperation drives output, and it drove 5 goals from the first whistle. The spread (-0.5) was settled by the 17th minute; Netherlands won by 4. The over cashed when Gakpo made it 4 in the 54th, and our read that Dutch chasing goals would open space for Swedish counters proved accurate with Elanga's strike. Our bear on the total — that Potter's low block could hold things cagey — never got a chance to form because Brobbey scored before Sweden settled.
The market had Netherlands as a clear favorite, and this result delivered on that and then some. Netherlands now sit at 99.95% to advance from the group; Sweden at 91.15%. Both sides will likely see the Round of 32, but the distance between them is no longer debatable.
Morocco1-1
Tunisia3-1
Sweden5-1
Japan2-2
France0-3Japan1-1Netherlands1-5Tunisia5-1