The All Whites finish the group stage with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Just's 84th-minute goal was a small moment of pride in an otherwise difficult night. This result confirmed the gap between a team that qualifies through an expanded 48-team field and a legitimate contender. New Zealand go home.
Belgium looked nothing like the side that drew their first 2 group matches. Trossard was the standout: goal at 28, goal at 50 with Vanaken assisting the second, and an assist for De Bruyne's 66th-minute strike. De Bruyne started and played over an hour, showing exactly why Belgium kept him central to the plan. The clinical edge that had been missing all tournament was suddenly very much present.
Doku, returning after time away for the birth of his son, started but came off at 56 minutes. It didn't matter — the bench delivered. Lukaku came on at 85, scored at 86 off a Raskin assist, then set up Saelemaekers for a stoppage-time capper. Belgium close Group G with 5 points and advance as group winners. The Round of 32 gets a different-looking Belgium side than what showed up for the first 2 matches.
We went 1 for 3 on this one. The moneyline on Belgium landed — the bull case held, with Doku back in the starting XI and NZ playing without stakes. But the spread miss was ugly: we took New Zealand +2.5, and the market agreed with us (slightly leaning toward NZ covering), but Belgium won by 4 and proved everyone wrong. The under 3.5 fell apart just as badly — the bear case that warned NZ had conceded 5 in 2 group games was the better read, and it hit.
Belgium winning at 83% was the right outcome, but the scoreline wasn't anywhere near what the spread implied. Group G is done: Belgium top it and advance to the Round of 32 as group winners, New Zealand go home with 1 point from 3 matches. If Belgium carry this form into the knockout stage, they're a problem.
Belgium1-5
Egypt1-3
Iran2-2
United States4-1
Senegal3-2New Zealand5-1Iran0-0Egypt1-1