The second half was a different story. Once Egypt adjusted, New Zealand had no answer — no pace in transition, no fresh legs to change the game, and no way to recapture the lead once Zico leveled it. The talent gap the data always suggested was real, and it showed across 45 brutal minutes. The All Whites leave with a brave first-half performance and nothing to show for it.
Egypt looked disjointed in the first half — exactly the grind the bear case warned about. They came out of halftime a different side. Mostafa Zico headed in from Mohamed Hany's cross in the 58th minute to level it, and 9 minutes later Salah was on the end of Zico's back-heel pass to put Egypt ahead. The system that was supposed to suffocate became the engine of an attacking blitz.
Trezeguet put it beyond doubt with a diving header from Salah's cross in the 82nd minute. Salah came off to a standing ovation at the 85th minute after scoring his 68th international goal and collecting an assist — nearly identical to the performance the bull case described. Egypt's quality was always going to tell; it just took 45 minutes longer than expected. Their first World Cup win, and it was not close by the end.
We went 2-for-3. The moneyline hit — Egypt were the better side, Salah was fit, and he delivered a goal and an assist exactly as the bull case laid out. The -0.5 spread covered too: a 2-goal winning margin clears a half-goal handicap without drama, and the class gap showed against the lowest-ranked team in the field, just as we wrote. The total is where we got burned. We leaned on Egypt's defensive system and New Zealand's set-piece-heavy attack to keep this under 2.5, and the first half backed us up completely. Then Egypt scored 3 in 24 second-half minutes. The bear we flagged — Egypt chasing late and running up the score — showed up and wrecked the under.
The market had Egypt as heavy favorites before kickoff and a 3-1 comeback win fits squarely inside what that pricing expected. New Zealand are now at 5.5% to advance from the group — effectively done. Egypt sit at 99.85% to advance and are through in everything but name, at 59.5% to win Group G outright. Salah's first World Cup goal is the story out of Vancouver, and Egypt are the team to beat in this group.
Belgium1-5
Egypt1-3
Iran2-2
Argentina2-3
Australia1-1Iran1-1New Zealand3-1Belgium1-1- DoubtfulHamdy Fathy — Substituted off with an injury in the first half