Norway vs France

Fri Jun 26 · 2:00 PM CT

By Pablo SanchezUpdated 12d ago·3 min read

1—4

	1H	2H	FT
NOR	0	0	1
FRA	0	0	4

Ousmane Dembélé bagged 3 goals in the first 32 minutes, France put Norway away 4-1 on Friday, and Group I closed with Les Bleus finishing perfect at 3-0.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJun 26, 4:29 PM CT

+6352NOR

✓

FRA-2074

Over 3.5✓Under 3.5

Best Bet

France to win✓

Postgame

Bull case held — France controlled this game from the opening minute and the Stéphan setup showed zero disruption, exactly the opposite of our bear-case concern.

Norway

Haaland on 4 goals, in form, and highly motivated
Must-win game forces open match that suits Norway's attack
France set up to absorb pressure and counter at will
Mbappé punishes the gaps Norway's high press leaves behind

France

Mbappé in best form of the tournament — 4 goals
Draw is enough; Stéphan won't deviate from the structure
Norway pressing high means Haaland gets transition chances too
Deschamps absent — small but real disruption to matchday routine

France came into this match already through to the knockouts and still put on a clinic. Dembélé had a hat trick before the 35-minute mark, Jørgen Strand Larsen missed a second-half penalty that would have made it interesting, and Désiré Doué added a fourth in stoppage time. The 4-1 scoreline tells you everything about the gap between a team playing to build momentum and one that showed up with half its squad resting.

Norway came in already qualified and treated this match accordingly — Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, and 8 other regulars were rested, 10 changes in all from their previous lineup. That calculus looked defensible until Dembélé scored at the 7th minute off a Mbappé assist. Norway did pull one back through Thelo Aasgaard at the 21st minute, a genuine goal that briefly made the first half look like a contest. Then Dembélé scored again at 32' and the illusion was over.

Polymarket — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Kalshi — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

The second half offered Norway a lifeline: Jørgen Strand Larsen stepped up for a penalty at the 50th minute and put a tame effort straight at Mike Maignan, who saved it comfortably. Norway finish Group I at 2-0-1, advance to the Round of 32 as runners-up, and head into the knockouts with Haaland fully rested and yet to play a meaningful minute in the group stage closer. The rotation strategy cost them dignity today — whatever comes next was probably worth it.

France were barely 25 seconds in when Mbappé smashed the crossbar with a thunderous drive. Then Dembélé opened the scoring at 7' off a Mbappé assist, Norway equalized, and Dembélé immediately shut the door again at 20' before completing the hat trick at 32'. Multiple outlets called it the second-fastest hat trick in World Cup history. Interim manager Stéphan had nothing to worry about at any point — France's structure absorbed Norway's attempts while their attack was merciless against a rotated backline.

Bradley Barcola, on as a substitute, set up Doué's late finish in the 90'+4' to close it at 4. France finishes Group I with a perfect record, 9 points from 3 games, and the top seed heading into the knockout draw. Mbappé played creator here rather than finisher, but with Dembélé and Doué in this form, France has real depth — the standout performance didn't even come from their headliner.

We went France on the moneyline, France -0.5 on the spread, and over 3.5 goals. All 3 hit. France opened as a roughly 96% favorite to win outright and backed it up completely. The spread was settled before halftime — France won by 3. On the total, our bull case was that Norway pressing high would open space for France to counter quickly, and that is exactly what Dembélé exploited. We flagged Haaland on set pieces as a live bear-case threat, but he never left the bench, removing that danger entirely. Five total goals cleared our 3.5 line with room to spare.

Both teams advance to the Round of 32. France tops Group I and carries an 87% chance to reach the Round of 16. Norway, rested and regrouped, sits at 66.5% to go deeper. Haaland watched the whole thing from the bench — whatever he is saving himself for, the tournament has not seen it yet.

Norway

(4-0-1)

Jul 5Wvs