The market had this pegged as a heavy French favorite going in, and that's exactly how it played out. The pregame line also had the total sitting at 2.5 goals, and this one landed well under it, which tells you everything about how the 90 minutes actually unfolded, tight and low-event until the penalty.
France0-1
Germany1-1
Australia0-0
Türkiye1-0
United States1-4Paraguay1-0
Sweden3-0
Norway4-1
Iraq3-0
Senegal3-1Our moneyline call was France, and it cashed. The pre-match case leaned on Mbappe being in ruthless form and France never showing a crack all tournament, and both held up, he scored the only goal and the defense never let Paraguay generate anything of substance. The spread pick was France minus 1.5, betting on this attack turning a win into a laugher, and that one missed, a single second-half penalty was the entire margin, not the blowout we expected. The total pick had the same problem. We took the over on 2.5, banking on France eventually cracking Paraguay open for multiple goals, and instead this was a cagey, low-event knockout that finished at 1, well under.
Paraguay's whole pre-match case rested on Orlando Gill playing hero again and Enciso conjuring something out of nothing, and Gill delivered his part with two stoppage-time stops on Mbappe, but Enciso and the rest of the attack never created a real chance, exactly the concern we flagged going in about a group that had barely created its own looks all tournament. On the other side, France's case was built on Mbappe's career-best form and a perfect run continuing, and it did, 5 wins in 5 with the penalty extending that. The one crack in the plan was real, too: without Tchouameni anchoring central midfield, France never fully broke Paraguay down and needed a set piece to decide it.