The second half settled it in a hurry. Sarr finished a Lamine Camara ball at 56', Gueye tapped in from a Sarr assist at 59', grabbed his second at 71' with Ndiaye setting him up, and Ndiaye closed things out at 82'. Gueye and Ndiaye were the standouts — 3 goals and 2 assists between them. Senegal finish Group I in third place on 3 points, but a goal differential that now puts them in a strong position to be one of the 8 best third-place qualifiers advancing to the Round of 32.
Iraq's tournament effectively ended at the 13th minute. Sulaka's challenge on Mane was flagged yellow on the field, upgraded to red after VAR review, and from that point Senegal had a free hand. A team that had already shipped 7 goals in 2 group games wasn't going to hold firm at 10 men against a side this desperate for goals.
Zidane Iqbal — the one player Iraq could look to for creativity — had no room to operate with his side pinned back from the half hour mark. Iraq finish 0-0-3 with 12 goals conceded and no points. There is no next chapter at this tournament, just the flight home and a rebuild that needs to start at the back.
We went 2-for-3. The moneyline was straightforward — Senegal were ~80% favorites and delivered: Iraq's defense was every bit as porous as the bull case said, Mane drew the foul that changed the match, and Sarr started and contributed. The one miss on the bull side was Jackson not starting, but that turned out to matter not at all. The spread covered too — they won by 5, which took care of our handicap without any drama. The total is where we left money on the table. We backed the under, leaning on Iraq's low output and neither side looking sharp going forward. What we didn't account for heavily enough was our own bear case: a dominant Senegal with a man advantage for most of the match was always capable of pushing well past 3 goals. The red card was the key swing — once Sulaka was off, the under was done. Group I belongs to France; Senegal now waits on other groups to confirm their spot. The markets have it priced as close to a certainty, and after a performance like this, there is not much to argue about.
Belgium2-3
Iraq5-0
Norway2-3
France1-3Senegal0-5France0-3Norway1-4