Luis de la Fuente pulled both Yamal and Oyarzabal at halftime with the job done — smart rotation, no point risking them further. Cucurella's corner in the 49th was bundled into the net by Al-Tambakti for the 4th. A late Ferran Torres effort was ruled out by VAR for offside, but Spain didn't need it. De la Fuente hit back at critics afterward, saying the team had 'suffocated the opponent from the very first minute' — a sharp contrast to the static performance against Cape Verde.
Saudi Arabia came in with momentum from their draw against Uruguay and the same blueprint in place: a compact 5-3-2 block, make Spain work for everything, keep it tight. It lasted less than 10 minutes. Yamal's opener arrived before the Saudis could settle, and the defensive shape had no answer for the combination play threading in behind. They were pinned back for long stretches and never looked like getting anything from the game going forward.
Salem Al-Dawsari picked up a yellow card in the 30th minute as the frustration set in early. Substitute Mohamed Kanno added a second Saudi booking in the 60th. The Saudis created virtually nothing in attack across 90 minutes — the same system that absorbed Uruguay's pressure was completely overrun here. They now head into a final group game against Uruguay needing a win to keep any hope of advancing alive.
The moneyline and spread both hit. Our bull case called Yamal starting and no real defensive answer in the Saudi backline — that played out from minute 10 onward — and Spain won by 4 against a -2.5 line that was never in question after the opening 25 minutes. The total is the miss: we took the under at 3.5 on Saudi defensive discipline and Spain's recent tendency to stall. Our own bear case on the total proved right — Yamal cracked the block open immediately, the depth gap did exactly what we said it could in a bad scenario, and 4 goals were already in the net before we could sweat it.
Spain sit at 86.5% to win Group H outright and have punched their ticket to the Round of 32. Saudi Arabia's odds of advancing have dropped to 32.5% — they need to beat Uruguay in their last group game to stay in it, and that's a steep ask after this performance.
Portugal1-0
Austria3-0
Uruguay1-0
Saudi Arabia4-0
Cape Verde0-0Cape Verde0-0Spain0-4Uruguay1-1