Daichi Kamada scored inside 4 minutes and Japan never looked back, running out 4-0 winners over Tunisia at Estadio Monterrey to all but secure their place in the Round of 32.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJun 25, 8:04 AM CT
+770TUN✓JPN-208
+203TUN +0.5✓JPN -0.5-208
+111Over 2.5✗Under 2.5-111
Best BetJapan to win✓
Postgame
Bull case landed clean — Japan were the better team by a wide margin and it showed from the 4th minute, finishing 4-0 with Ueda running the second half.
Tunisia
+Renard bounces are a real thing, and a deep, compact 4-2-3-1 with Skhiri shielding the back four can absolutely frustrate a Japan attack missing its two most creative wingers. Steal a set piece, ride Dahmen, get out with a point.
−Tunisia have 0 points, a -4 goal difference, a coach who has been in the building for under a week, and are facing the most talented team they will see in this group. The bottom can fall out again.
Japan
+Japan are the class of this matchup even at half strength, Kamada is in form, and the group math basically demands a win to keep pace with the Dutch and Swedes. Take care of business and they are almost certainly through to the Round of 32.
−The injury list is genuinely heavy — no Kubo, no Mitoma, no Minamino, no Endo. That is a lot of goal threat and game management gone, and a Renard side that defends for 90 minutes is the exact stylistic nightmare.
Japan came to Monterrey and handled it. Kamada got them going in the 4th minute, Ueda added 2 of his own, Junya Ito chipped in a 3rd, and it finished 4-0. Tunisia — pointless going into this one and without a goal in open play this tournament — had no answer from the opening whistle. They are going home.
Herve Renard had under a week to fix a broken team, and it showed. The plan was a compact shape with Skhiri shielding the back 3 — sensible enough on paper — but it lasted about 4 minutes before Nakamura found space on the byline and Kamada finished. Once Tunisia were behind that early, a side with 0 goals in this tournament had no realistic path back.
Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Tunisia(0-0-2)
0
+1.5
-141
+850
o2.5
+111
Japan(1-1-0)
4
-1.5
+141
-208
u2.5
-111
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
Dahmen made a few sharp stops to keep the deficit from being worse in the first half, but the back 3 was outclassed all night. Talbi's deflection redirected Ueda's long-range effort into the net at 31 minutes, and after that the second half was damage limitation. The Renard bounce never materialised. Tunisia leave this World Cup pointless and outscored heavily — the collapse started before he arrived and he could not stop it in time.
Japan were missing Kubo, Mitoma, Minamino, and Endo, and they still looked like a side several levels above the opposition. Kamada was sharp from the first whistle — his 4th-minute opener off a Nakamura cross was Japan's fastest-ever World Cup goal — and he drove Japan's best play throughout the first half. Ueda's fierce long-range strike at 31 minutes made it 2-0 and effectively ended the match as a contest.
Junya Ito finished off a smart Ueda assist in the 69th minute for 3, and Ueda headed in Sano's cross in the 83rd to put the 4th away. Ueda took Man of the Match honours and earned it: 2 goals and an assist in a complete striker's performance. Moriyasu said the side 'played aggressively and prepared well for what we wanted to do' — if anything that undersells it.
We went 2 for 3. The moneyline (Japan) hit — this was never close. The spread (-0.5, Japan to win) covered by 3.5 goals, so that was easy money too. The total is where we got burned: we called the under 2.5 and 4 goals went in. Our own pre-match bear case warned that Tunisia's back line had already been carved up and Japan would find the net if the game opened — turns out we should have trusted that read more than the quiet-game scenario. Renard's defensive shape did not hold, and Japan scored freely even without their top creators.
The market had Japan as a heavy favourite and they delivered in full. Japan are now at 99.85% to advance from the group; Tunisia sit at 0% and are done. Japan and the Netherlands both top Group F on 4 points — the picture at the top is tight, but Japan's path to the Round of 32 is all but sealed.
Netherlands1-3
Japan0-4
Sweden1-5
Brazil1-2