Mastouri's 54th-minute header — set up by Mejbri — cut it to 2-1 and gave the crowd something to react to. It was the 1 moment of genuine quality Tunisia produced on the night. It lasted 8 minutes before Van Hecke put it back to a 2-goal gap. Renard said after the match that his team wanted to 'finish this competition as cleanly as possible' — they got a goal, but 0 points across 3 group matches and 0 wins tells the full story of their tournament.
Koeman kept his preferred XI in place despite advancement already being locked up, and it paid off with another fast start. Brobbey — now on 3 tournament goals — latched onto a Van Dijk delivery in the 7th minute to make it 2-0 before Tunisia could blink. The Dutch controlled possession at 72% for the match, rarely allowing Tunisia into dangerous areas and dictating the entire tempo from the first whistle.
The set pieces were clinical in the second half. Reijnders' corner delivery in the 62nd picked out Van Hecke at the back post for an unmarked header — the kind of routine the Dutch ran all group stage. Netherlands finish 2-1-0, 7 points, Group F winners, and move on to face Morocco in the Round of 32 at Guadalajara Stadium. Koeman was measured but confident after the match: 'We have different types of attackers and can change them around where we think we need to.' Hard to argue with a team that just rattled off 3 group wins out of 3 available.
The moneyline hit clean — Netherlands won by 2 with no drama, exactly what the market priced in at 87.5%. The spread also came in: we took Tunisia +2.5, Netherlands won by exactly 2, and it covered by half a goal. The bear case that Koeman would rotate and create complacency never showed up — he kept his first choice starting XI and they were sharp from the first minute. The total missed. Our bull case for the under was that the Dutch would throttle back once ahead and the low block would keep goals down. Instead 4 total goals cleared the 3.5 line, with Mastouri's header in the 54th ensuring we couldn't squeak through. The bears were right there: Dutch attack posted 5 in their last match and Tunisia had already conceded 4 in a single game. We should have listened to ourselves. Two out of 3 picks, but the under was wrong from the opening minutes.
Tunisia are eliminated at 0.0% to advance — the market had them right all tournament. Netherlands are at 99.95% and move on as group winners with genuine momentum. Brobbey took Man of the Match and leads the Dutch attack heading into the knockout stage. Japan and Sweden also advance from Group F, leaving Tunisia as the only side to exit without a point.
Netherlands1-3
Japan0-4
Sweden1-5
Morocco1-1Tunisia3-1Sweden5-1Japan2-2