Barstool Bush

Türkiye vs Paraguay

Fri Jun 19 · 10:00 PM CT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 18d ago·2 min read
Türkiye
Paraguay
0—1
FT
1H2HFT
TUR
000
PAR
001

Matías Galarza scored inside 2 minutes, Miguel Almirón was sent off at halftime under a new FIFA rule, and Paraguay's defense held 33 Türkiye shots at bay to win 1-0 and send Türkiye home from the 2026 World Cup without a goal or a point.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJun 20, 10:56 AM CT
+120TUR✗PAR+308
+120TUR -0.5✗PAR +0.5-117
+120Over 2.5✓Under 2.5-120
Best BetTürkiye to win✗
Postgame

The bear bit us hard — Türkiye's possession-without-penetration disease infected the whole game and the sucker-punch loss we warned about arrived in the 2nd minute, losing the moneyline.

The game was effectively over before Türkiye had settled. Galarza's left-footed drive from outside the box found the bottom corner in the 2nd minute, Almirón handed his own team a man disadvantage with a straight red card at 45+3' for covering his mouth during a confrontation with Mert Müldür — a VAR-enforced first under FIFA's new law — and somehow a 10-man Paraguay side held firm for the entire second half. Final score: Türkiye 0, Paraguay 1. Türkiye exit the 2026 World Cup with no goals and no points from 2 group games.

Vincenzo Montella's side dominated every surface metric — 33 shots, 2.10 xG, 78% possession after the break — and still couldn't score against a Paraguay side that spent over 45 minutes with 10 men. The problem was the exact one any honest pre-match read flagged: possession without penetration. Türkiye recycled the ball endlessly in front of a disciplined low block and never found the combination to breach it.

Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Türkiye(0-0-2)
0
Polymarket
-0.5
+120
Polymarket
+120
Polymarket
o2.5
+120
Paraguay(1-0-1)
1
Polymarket
Kalshi
+0.5
-117
Polymarket
+308
Polymarket
u2.5
-120
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Kenan Yildiz nearly equalized in the 48th minute but hit the side netting from a tight angle. Arda Güler had moments throughout. Can Uzun was denied in the 75th and 86th minutes, Deniz Gül headed an unmarked chance straight at the keeper, and Merih Demiral's stoppage-time header drifted inches past the post. The finishing just wasn't there. Türkiye's World Cup is over.

Daniel Garnero's side came in with a single play: score fast and make life miserable. Matías Galarza executed the first part inside 2 minutes, latching onto a flick-on from Julio Enciso and driving a left-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom corner. It was exactly the counter sucker-punch Türkiye couldn't afford to concede — and they gave it up in 64 seconds.

Then Almirón made it harder for his own team. His 45+3' red card — a straight dismissal on VAR review under FIFA's new rule prohibiting players from covering their mouths during confrontations, reportedly the first such call of this tournament — left Paraguay defending for their lives in the second half. They did it. Seven shots, 0.32 xG, 3 points. Paraguay's knockout-round hopes are firmly alive.

We made 3 picks pre-match: Türkiye moneyline, Türkiye -0.5 spread, and the under 2.5. Grade them all. The moneyline and spread go together — both needed Türkiye to win, and they didn't score a single goal in 90 minutes against a 10-man side. The bear case we wrote played out almost verbatim: possession without penetration was Türkiye's disease all match, and the sucker-punch loss we specifically flagged arrived inside 2 minutes. Both picks lost. The total is the 1 bright spot: just 1 goal in 90 minutes cashes the under cleanly, the ugly low-scoring game we called from the start. Group D now looks like this: USA are through at the top, Paraguay sit at 84% to advance to the Round of 32, Australia are clinging to a thread, and Türkiye are going home.

Türkiye
(1-0-2)
Jun 25WvsUnited States3-2
Jun 19LvsParaguay0-1
Jun 14LvsAustralia0-2
Paraguay
(1-2-2)
Jul 4LvsFrance0-1
Jun 29DvsGermany1-1
Jun 25DvsAustralia0-0
Jun 19WvsTürkiye1-0
Jun 12LvsUnited States1-4
Recent form.
Türkiye
(0)
Fully healthy
Paraguay
(1)
  • SuspendedMiguel Almirón — Straight red card at 45+3' triggers automatic one-match ban
Injury report.

Sources

World CupGroup DTürkiyeParaguayPolymarketKalshiDraftKings