Then Balogun stepped on Tarik Muharemovic's ankle in the 64th minute — VAR upgraded the foul to a straight red, and Bosnia suddenly had the man advantage with 25 minutes left. They couldn't use it. Radeljic fouled in a dangerous area, and Tillman curled the resulting free kick over the wall, off the Bosnian goalkeeper's glove, and into the net in the 82nd. Clean sheet secured, USA moves on to the Round of 16 to face Belgium.
Bosnia came in with a clear defensive approach — 8 players behind the ball, compact shape, limit USA's space. For stretches of the match it held. Edin Dzeko led the line but was largely isolated, and the American backline stayed organized enough to limit clean counter-attacking opportunities. The structure was disciplined, just not disciplined enough.
They had their opening from the 64th minute onward with the man advantage and couldn't generate a threat. Dzeko never found the dangerous moments the pre-match narrative needed, Bosnia didn't register a shot on target in the second half, and now they go home. They end the tournament 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss — outclassed when it counted most.
The moneyline hit — USA were the right side and the full-strength attack with Pulisic back was exactly the upgrade our bull case called. The spread and the total went the other way. We took Bosnia +1.5 expecting them to stay competitive, and USA's 2-goal margin doesn't cover that by half a goal. Only 2 goals scored on the night means the over 2.5 missed too — Bosnia's defensive discipline suppressed the total even while losing.
We went 1-2 on our picks. Polymarket had USA at 71.5% and the result matched that call. The more consequential thing coming out of Wednesday night is Balogun's suspension — he's out for the Belgium match, which is a real hole in the USA attack heading into the Round of 16.
Belgium1-4
Bosnia and Herzegovina2-0
Türkiye2-3
Australia2-0
Paraguay4-1United States0-2
Qatar3-1
Switzerland1-4
Canada1-1- SuspendedFolarin Balogun — Straight red card triggers automatic one-match ban for Belgium