Folarin Balogun bagged a brace, Paraguay handed over an own goal, and the USMNT cruised 4-1 in Inglewood to start their home World Cup with the kind of statement Mauricio Pochettino has been begging for.
USA 4, Paraguay 1. Damián Bobadilla turned a USA cross into his own net inside 7 minutes, Folarin Balogun made it 2-0 in the 31st, and Balogun struck again deep into first-half stoppage time to put the hosts up 3-0 at the break. Pochettino was comfortable enough to pull Christian Pulisic at halftime with the game already in hand. Miguel Almirón gave Paraguay a flicker just past the hour, but Giovanni Reyna iced it in the 98th to seal a 4-1 result that never really felt in doubt.
Paraguay4-4-2
United States4-2-3-1
Starting 11s.
The shape did the work. USA lined up in a 4-2-3-1 with Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie screening behind Reyna, Weah and Sebastian Berhalter, and Ricardo Pepi running the channels. They owned the ball at 65 percent and out-xG'd Paraguay 1.35 to 0.47, per ESPN. Paraguay's 4-4-2 — Julio Enciso and Alex Arce up top, Diego Gómez and Ramón Sosa wide — couldn't get a foothold. No reds, no nonsense, no scares once the second goal went in.
Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
United States(1-0-0)
4
-0.5
+115
+115
o2.5
+160
Paraguay(0-0-1)
1
+0.5
-113
+344
u2.5
-156
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
The prediction markets had this priced as a tight one. USA were favored but barely — somewhere in the high 40s on a moneyline that also gave the draw a real seat at the table, and Paraguay a live dog's chance in the low 20s. The closing total of 2.5 leaned heavily under at most books. So both the cover and the over cashed easily. If you were on USA -0.5, you barely had to sweat past the half-hour.
Group D now looks like a USA runaway. The post-match board has the Americans at 58.5 percent to win the group, with Türkiye next at 32.5 and Australia a distant third. Paraguay's group-winning hopes are essentially gone at under 3 percent, and their probability of even reaching the round of 16 sits around 28. They've still got 6 points on the table, but Gustavo Alfaro now needs a result against either Türkiye or Australia just to keep the math interesting.
USA's next two are the other Group D sides, and after this kind of opener the market expects them to handle business. Pochettino will want to see if the same midfield triangle holds up against a Türkiye side that won't sit as deep as Paraguay did. For Paraguay, the next 90 minutes are basically a knockout. Lose again and they're out before the final group day even matters.
Belgium1-4
Bosnia and Herzegovina2-0
Türkiye2-3
Australia2-0
Paraguay4-1
France0-1
Germany1-1