Astros bet $3 million on a Notre Dame riser who fell to them

Jack Radel wasn't supposed to still be on the board at 28. MLB Pipeline had him ranked as the No. 45 player in this class, second-round money, second-round profile. Instead the Notre Dame right-hander fell into Houston's lap in the supplemental first round, and the Astros didn't wait around to make sure he stayed there.

Jim Callis

@jimcallisMLB

Supplemental 1st-rder Jack Radel signs w/@Astros for $3 million (slot 28 value = $3,363,600). @NDBaseball RHP, riding fastball reaches 98 mph, feel for five pitches, plenty of strikes. @MLBDraft

The number itself tells the story. Slot value at 28 was $3,363,600, and Radel signed for a flat $3 million — a bit under slot, which usually means a team is doing math on its bonus pool to squeeze more money elsewhere in the class. It's a below-slot deal for a player who added nearly two full ticks of velocity this spring, sitting 94 and touching 98, which is exactly the kind of jump that gets a college arm drafted a round earlier than the industry pegged him.

This wasn't a projectable-but-raw kid, either. Radel started all 15 of his outings for Notre Dame this season, went 8-3 with a 3.29 ERA and a stupid-good strikeout-to-walk number — 116 punchouts against just 22 walks in 87.2 innings. That's a command guy with a power arm now attached to it, and it's why Callis flagged the "feel for five pitches, plenty of strikes" part in the same breath as the fastball. Teams love upside. Teams love upside with strike-throwing college track records even more.

For the Astros, this is the second domino to fall in their 2026 draft class, and it fits a franchise that has leaned on pitching pipeline depth to backfill a big league roster that keeps graduating arms to free agency or the trade block. Getting a 6-foot-5 starter prospect with three separate 55-grade pitches signed and moving before he ever throws a competitive pitch as a pro is exactly the kind of quiet, unglamorous transaction that Houston's front office has built a reputation on.

Radel grew up in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, hardly a pipeline for first-round arms, and he's already talked about wanting to be the next Nolan Ryan — lofty, sure, but not the worst comp for a projectable righty who just found another gear on his fastball at the right time. Now it's on Houston's player development machine to see if the stuff plays the same way against pro hitters as it did against the ACC.