A's Bet on a Broken Arm With Elite Stuff

By Bush Staff·2 min read
A's Bet on a Broken Arm With Elite Stuff
Share

The Athletics just paid $865,000 for a pitcher who won't throw a competitive pitch until 2027.

The Athletics don't have a top farm system, but they just added the kind of pure stuff that makes prospect hounds pay attention regardless of the injury report. Third-round pick Jacob Dudan, the NC State right-hander who was flirting with first-round buzz before his elbow gave out, officially signed with Oakland for $865,000, according to Jim Callis.

Jim Callis
Jim Callis
@jimcallisMLB

3rd-rder Jacob Dudan signs w/@Athletics for $865k (slot 83 value = $988,700). @NCStateBaseball RHP, generated some 1st-rd buzz before having Tommy John surgery. Fastball up to 99 mph, wipeout upper-80s slider. @MLBDraft

Jim Callis: 3rd-rder Jacob Dudan signs w/@Athletics for $865k (slot 83 value = $988,700). @NCStateBaseball RHP, generated some 1st-r

The bonus landing under slot makes sense given the medical file. Dudan blew out his elbow in April after a 116-pitch start against Notre Dame in which he was still hitting 98 mph in the eighth inning — stubbornness and stuff in equal measure. He had Tommy John surgery shortly after, and the expectation is he won't be back on a mound in a real game until around July 2027. That's a full year-plus of rehab before the A's get any return on this investment.

Before the elbow snapped, Dudan was one of the more interesting arms in the draft class. He posted a 4-1 record with a 3.60 ERA over 8 starts, striking out 62 batters against just 12 walks in 50 innings — a 1.10 WHIP that had scouts drooling. He's a low-slot, east-west righty averaging 96 mph and touching 99, paired with an upper-80s slider he leaned on 72% of the time in 2025, generating a 42% miss rate. That's not a projectable arm — that's a bullpen weapon that's already functioning at an elite level when healthy.

The concerns are real too: below-average control historically, though he trimmed his walk rate from 15% down to 6% before the injury, and no real third pitch to speak of. Most evaluators see him ending up as a high-leverage reliever rather than a starter, which tracks with the fastball-slider-only look. For a pick this deep, though, that's the profile teams dream on — a two-pitch mix that could miss bats at the highest level once he's back.

This is the classic Athletics draft-and-develop play: bank a talented arm at a discount because of medical risk, stash him in extended rehab, and hope the stuff plays the same once he's a year removed from surgery. It's a bet on projection over certainty, and it won't pay off — or fail — for a long while. But if Dudan comes back throwing like he did against Notre Dame, $865,000 is going to look like a steal.

More Stories