Baker Mayfield doesn't sound like a guy coming off a lost playoff berth. Ahead of Tampa Bay's second preseason game against the Chiefs on Saturday, Mayfield told reporters he thinks the Bucs are "gonna shock a lot of people this year," and when someone pushed back on that, he doubled down: "Hell yeah I am. Everybody's picking us probably to have a losing record."
That's not just bulletin-board noise. Tampa Bay missed the playoffs last season after being a trendy pick, and the outside noise on this roster has been rough all offseason. Mayfield himself hasn't been immune to the drama, either. He spent much of the summer frustrated with contract talks, feeling the Bucs' early offers didn't reflect where he belongs among the league's paid quarterbacks. GM Jason Licht says the tension hasn't slowed him down, pointing to Mayfield showing up at 4 a.m. for training as proof he's locked in, and Mayfield is backing that up publicly by promising a "really big year."
Fantasy managers have heard variations of this before, and the market is treating it accordingly. Mayfield went from a top-3 fantasy quarterback in 2024 to QB19 last season, and that swing has him sitting around QB21 in consensus rankings for 2026, with an ADP hovering in the 120s to low-130s range. That's the profile of a guy you can get in the 11th or 12th round of a single-QB draft, if you're taking him at all. In two-QB and Superflex leagues he's a much more relevant QB2, but in standard formats this is a wait-and-see stock, not a buy right now, no matter how confident he sounds in August.
The more interesting fantasy nugget buried in Mayfield's comments was about his new backfield mate. Mayfield went out of his way to praise Kenny Gainwell's versatility, specifically his receiving chops that trace back to his college days as a slot receiver. That matters because Gainwell landed in Tampa Bay as the clear No. 2 back behind Bucky Irving, and Irving has already dealt with a lengthy injury list early in his career. Gainwell caught 73 passes last year, fourth-most among running backs, and he's positioned to soak up the pass-catching role Rachaad White left behind, a job that's produced 50-plus catches in three of the last four seasons in this offense.
That makes Gainwell one of the better handcuff-plus-standalone-value bets on the board. If Irving stays healthy, Gainwell is still a PPR-relevant flex who can spike weeks with 6 or 7 targets. If Irving misses time, which has been the trend, Gainwell is a plug-and-play RB2. He's going off the board as a late-round flier in most drafts, which is exactly the range where you want your handcuffs with real receiving juice attached.
As for the betting angle, Tampa Bay's preseason win total already reflects the skepticism Mayfield is railing against, with the market leaning toward a step back after last year's playoff miss. A confident quarterback talking his team up in August is nothing new, but Mayfield backing it with actual behavioral changes, an early-morning training routine and a public commitment to a bounce-back year, gives this one slightly more weight than the usual training-camp bravado. It won't move his fantasy price before Week 1, but it's worth remembering if he starts hot.
Saturday's game against the Chiefs won't tell anyone much on its own, preseason snaps rarely do, but it's the next data point in a summer full of them. Watch how much work Mayfield and the starters actually get, watch Gainwell's usage patterns behind Irving, and watch whether Licht's praise translates into on-field chemistry once the lights come on for real. Mayfield's making the prediction now. The roster still has to go cash it.