Kalshi doesn't quote a single over/under per team — it runs a ladder of markets at every win threshold, and summing the ladder gives each team's market-implied expected wins. Do that for all 32 teams and you get a full standings projection priced by traders, not power rankings.
The top of the board: the Rams at 10.7, Baltimore at 10.3, Buffalo and Detroit at 10.1, Seattle at 10.0. Cincinnati (9.9), Kansas City (9.7) and the Chargers (9.6) sit just underneath. Note the pattern — the same teams leading the Super Bowl and conference markets lead here, which is what a coherent market looks like.
The bottom is where it gets brutal. Miami is priced at 4.4 expected wins — last in the league, below Arizona (4.5) and the Jets (5.2). Cleveland (5.8) and Tennessee (6.3) fill out the bottom 5. A 4.4-win price isn't a bad-team number; it's a teardown number.
The market is telling the same Miami story in a second place, too: Polymarket's most-traded destination market has Tyreek Hill's 2026 team at Kansas City with a leading 24.7% — with more than $5M traded on the question. When your best-known player's most likely address is someone else's stadium, the 4.4 makes more sense.
Two technical notes for anyone using these numbers: the tails of each ladder trade thin, so we only price off two-sided books with tight spreads and interpolate the rest, and July totals move hard through training camp. The full 32-team board on this page refreshes every 15 minutes from the live markets.