Jacksonville is the AFC's stealth market darling: 2.75% on the Super Bowl board — 15th overall, ahead of half the league — and 5.5% to win the conference. Polymarket's Joey Bosa destination market trades at 47% Jacksonville, the leading price, which would be a veteran pass-rush addition to a roster the market already quietly likes.
Cleveland's numbers run the other way: 5.8 implied wins, 29th in the league, with under 1% on the champion board. The one Browns name the market genuinely prices is Myles Garrett — 5.5% for MVP, extraordinary for a defensive player and a tie with Matthew Stafford and Justin Jefferson on that board.
That's the shape of the game: a roster the market thinks is 2 wins better at home, against a defense with the single most feared player on the field. Garrett against a Jacksonville offensive line protecting the market's sleeper is the matchup within the matchup.
Worth flagging: Jacksonville is the one team whose win-total ladder was too thin to price cleanly this summer, so the conference and title markets are the best read on how traders see the Jaguars. Both say the same thing — playoff-bubble team, and a home date with Cleveland is exactly the win that profile requires.